Arab Thinking Forum
In a seminar held by the Arab Thinking Forum in London, former Congressman of the Democratic party Professor James Moran stated that he believes Israel, Iran and Turkey are forces to be reckoned with in the Middle East. Those forces, Moran says, will shape the region during the coming period as the Biden administration will deal mainly with them. Israel, which the United States will continue to support as it is one of the pillars of American foreign policy. Iran, which will obtain a nuclear agreement and strengthen its regional power in Iraq and Syria. Finally Turkey, as it has imposed itself as a major player which America will be interested in reaching an agreement with as it is clear that Erdogan is continuing to increase his power in the region.
Moran believes that Arab countries will have a relatively less influence in the future, especially Saudi Arabia, which is no longer on Biden's agenda. His administration will work with Turkey, Israel and Iran in the region and finalize settlements with them in order to dedicate time to Asia as they are working to prevent China from controlling the region.
Moreover, Moran added that the Iranian goal of bombing Iraq is to reassert itself as a major player, and to provoke the Biden administration.
Interestingly, Moran also pointed out that the late Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon was against the invasion of Iraq as it would have given Iran the strength it has now. He explained that Sharon thought of Saddam Hussein, as a barrier between The Shiite power and the region. Moran concluded that by saying that no state in the region wants war with Iran except Mohammed bin Zayed and Muhammad bin Salman, and he expects that this will not happen, because Biden and his administration have explicitly stated they will not entre any wars.
On the other hand, Dr. Henning Ricky, a professor of international relations - and head of the DGA study group, said that the Biden administration have been reasoning diplomatically rather than militarily with Iran. Ricky suspects that the solution to the Iranian file will be through negotiations and reaching an agreement all while also negotiating with Turkey as it has become an important force. Indicating that the next conflict will be between America and China, and this may create new partnerships such as one between Turkey and China.
In regards to the new American approach to the region, Dr. Ghada Al-Karmi, a Palestinian academic and former researcher at the University of Exeter, said that the Middle East in general is no longer central to Washington's policy as it was previously. She also expressed concerns regarding the balance of power in the region which has changed during the past years in favor of Russia and China. Which, according to her, will reduce the American involvement in the region. While also pointing out that the Palestinian issue is no longer on the agenda of Biden, who said that he supports the two-state solution.
In his attempt to dismantle the issue of normalization between Israel and some Arab countries, James Moran says that the UAE has a clear goal of normalization with Israel that has nothing to do with Palestine. He explains that it rather has to do with a long-term ambition for what Mohammed bin Zayed wants, one that is not equally important to Mohammed bin Salman. He anticipates stronger relationships between Israel and the Sunni Arab countries.
Finally, Moran says that in order to achieve peace, the world has to pressure Israel to stop apartheid and establish a state that preserves rights to all. Considering that Israel depends on America not only politically but also financially, Washington is able to pressure Israel. While also shedding light on the fact that he suspects Netanyahu losing the upcoming elections as the continuous demonstrations against him are an important indicator. According to Moran, Netanyahu did everything in his power to make Trump succeed, but he failed to do so and will not remain at the helm of the government.
